JANUARY 2024
Acute Variceal Bleeding; mortality and its predictors
1Dr. Bushra Kadir, 2Dr. Adil Hassan, 3Dr Ayaz Chandio, 4Dr. Ubedullah Bughio, 5Dr. Abdul Hafeez, 6Dr. Jawaid Iqbal
1FCPS, Senior Registrar, Asian Institute of Medical Sciences and Hospital Hyderabad
2FCPS, Assistant Professor, Asian Institute of Medical Sciences and Hospital Hyderabad
3MBBS, MPH, Designation: Provincial Coordinator DRTB, CDC-TB (GF) Sindh
4FCPS, Senior Registrar, Asian Institute of Medical Sciences and Hospital Hyderabad
5FCPS, Assistant Professor, Asian Institute of Medical Sciences and Hospital Hyderabad
6FCPS, Assistant Professor, Asian Institute of Medical Sciences and Hospital Hyderabad
ABSTRACT
Objectives: Acute variceal Bleeding (AVB) is one of the lethal complication of cirrhosis and carries significant mortality and morbidity. We evaluated the in-hospital mortality (IHM) in patients with AVB.
Methods: We performed a descriptive study after informed consent. Study was conducted in Asian Institute of Medical Sciences, Hyderabad. All patients with AVB in the period of 6 months from April 2023 to October 2023, were included with both gender and age above 18 years. Patients’ baseline demographic characters and investigations were obtained. Liver function status was assessed by MELD (Model for end-stage liver disease) and Child-Pugh (CTP) Score. Patients were followed during hospital stay and outcome was documented as discharged or expired. Outcome were stratified to age, gender, MELD and comorbidity.
Results: A total of 113 patients with active AVB were included, with mean age of 47.1 ± 12.9 year. There were 82 males (72.6%) and 31 females (27.4%). CTP score was categorised as CTP-A 05(4.42), CTP-B 32(28.31) and CTP-C 76(67.25). Mean MELD score was 13.8±7.6. MELD >15 was found in 41 (36.28%) and <15 in 72 (63.71%). Diabetes mellitus (DM) was found in 38 patients (33.6%), hypertension in 21 patients (18.6%) and ischaemic heart disease in three patients (2.7%). Out of 113 patients, IHM was observed in 17 (15%) and 96 (85%) were discharged with improvement. Advance age, presence of DM and high MELD score were associated with high IHM.
Conclusions: The IHM is comparable to the global level. Age, presence of DM and MELD score are the significant predictors of mortality. Early risk assessment with MELD will aid in reducing mortality among patients with AVB.
KEYWORDS: Cirrhosis, Variceal bleeding, Mortality and predictors.